Futures prices continue to go high Shenhuo shares have continued to limit A non-ferrous plate there is A chance?
Since the beginning of this year, the global financial market has been volatile, oil and gas, non-ferrous and other commodity prices continue to hover high, however, the overall performance of the A-share resource sector is not satisfactory.Among them, popular shenhuo shares fell for two consecutive days limit, the short-term decline of more than 30% industry insiders said that in the short term, resources stocks are still expected to be a wave opportunity, it is difficult to rise in a long cycle.At the same time, the commodity market may gradually weaken this year after investors became more concerned about the risk of “stagflation” in the world economy.Resource stocks and commodity performance differentiation by the early Federal Reserve monetary easing, Russia and Ukraine tensions and other factors, since 2022, crude oil, natural gas, some non-ferrous metals and agricultural products and other global commodities have seen a sharp rise.In recent trading sessions, although commodities such as crude oil have retreated significantly from their highs, the year-to-date gains remain ‘substantial.’In A shares, since this year, resource stocks, cyclical stock plate index did not show A stage of strength.Among them, non-ferrous, chemical, real estate and other industry indexes, this year since the decline has been roughly equivalent to the a-share main index.Coal, steel and other five typical resource stocks, cyclical stock plate index, only the coal stock index has risen this year.Analysts at Starstone investment said that even with the resurgence of the overall surge in commodities, the investment opportunities in resource stocks are still difficult to grasp.For one thing, resource stocks and commodity prices do not “peak” at the same time;On the other hand, the impact of russia-Ukraine conflict and COVID-19 on subsequent global supply and demand of bulk commodities is not yet clear. Combined with the domestic policy of supply and price stability, the supply of most bulk commodities in China may be more comfortable than that in 2021, and it is expected that it is difficult for resource stocks to have long-term investment opportunities.There are also industry insiders said that, in terms of different commodity categories, coal prices began to rise last year, many coal stocks also followed the rise, and now the stock price of the relevant stocks is not low, the stock price is relatively reasonable;Oil and gas sector is similar to coal, oil prices have recently seen a sharp rise, related stocks may also maintain strength for the time being.However, in the long run, the trend of stock prices of relevant sectors may have periodic opportunities to follow the trend of commodity prices, but it is difficult to have long-term trend opportunities.Organization:Prices still have could greatly futures analyst said, along with the market for nickel crowded warehouse mood has cooled, and overall non-ferrous plate for a correction, the Shanghai aluminum this week following the callback is deeper, the center of gravity back to more than a month and a half, low at the situation in Russia and Ukraine remains unclear, sanctions against the regime in the us and Europe has the potential of overweight, crude oil prices remain high, generallyAluminium prices have support on both supply and energy costs.In terms of fundamentals, China’s southwest region is actively resuming production, and the domestic basic supply is not affected, which also leads to the widening of the Shanghai-London price gap and the divergence of inventory performance at home and abroad. After two rounds of sharp price correction, spot demand has recovered somewhat, and the price still has the possibility of upward revision. It is suggested that investors should focus on long thinking.The risk is that energy prices continue to fall and tensions between Russia and Ukraine ease.On the macro side, copper prices have upward momentum, the current Russia-Ukraine negotiations have not produced substantive results, although the overall impact of the event on the supply side of copper is limited, but because Russian copper can not be delivered in the LME market, so the impact will be concentrated in the European market.Recently, the import deficit once expanded by 3000/ ton, showing the situation of external strength and internal weakness.In addition, this week, energy prices skyrocketed, inflation expectations heating up, the Federal Reserve in March to raise interest rates of 25 basis points is almost no doubt things, 50 basis points of interest rate may be temporarily 0, in the case of monetary policy is determined, inflation can be alleviated and resolved will become one of the subjective logic leading the current copper price changes.This week’s U.S. CONSUMER price index hit a 40-year high in February, leaving much of copper’s momentum to continue rising with inflation expectations.Fundamentals, copper prices have downward pressure, the supply of copper concentrate TC continues to rise, copper concentrate transport smooth, the supply side continues to maintain stability.Demand side, in February, domestic downstream operating rate is still less than expected, the epidemic in east China and northeast China intensified, short-term domestic demand is still not optimistic, even in the second quarter of the peak season superimposed steady growth expectations, copper consumption demand in the short term is difficult to have a good performance.Source: Tongshun – Different eye movement