Liquor Spring Festival not to sell: dealers said Mid-Autumn Festival inventory has not sold out, alcoholic liquor and other 4 liquor enterprises Q4 net profit decline

2022-06-23 0 By

This article reprinted from sohu finance and economics, the author | wen-xian li Wei Ru as the end of the lunar New Year holidays, all the wine companies open years to return to work and production, and inventory for the Spring Festival season.Recently, Moutai Group held the fourth Party Committee (Expanded) meeting of 2022, pointed out that during the Spring Festival, Moutai liquor sales momentum is good, the price continues to be stable, the market shows a booming trend;Maotai maotai-fragrant series of wine sales achieved a substantial increase;The group’s wine, blueberry wine, health wine and other products successfully occupied the “double festival” node, achieving a “good start” in 2022 sales.In addition to Maotai Group, Sohu financial inventory found that during the working day after the festival, Citic Securities, Security Securities, Soochow securities and other brokers released the Spring Festival marketing research said, the year of the Tiger Spring Festival peak season liquor marketing overall performance and structural differences are in line with expectations, the overall dynamic marketing benign and robust.Mainstream brokerage views were financial and economic big V “non Pole Tai Dong Baozhen” questioned.Dong Baozhen recently issued a document, liquor has entered a major cycle decline inflection point.Excessive price increases lead to bubbles, prices exceed consumption capacity, channel inventory can not undertake.Sohu finance visited the market found that high-end liquor is relatively best-selling, regional liquor product sales are still depressed.Overall, during the peak season of this year’s Spring Festival liquor sales relative to last year’s decline is larger, the highest drop of about 40%.In addition, from the 10 annual report has been disclosed, in addition to the white wine performance of shun Xin agriculture, only huang Tai wine industry and gold seed is still in the red, the remaining 7 have realized net profit growth.However, in terms of single quarter, in the fourth quarter of 2021, only Moutai achieved net profit growth, but the increase was narrower than the same period last year.Swellfun, Huangtai Wine, Golden Seed and Tianyoude wine are in a state of decline or loss;Shanxi Fenjiu, Jinshiyuan, Xide Wine and Jiujiu depend on the upper and lower limits of the final data.Sohu Finance and Economics recently visited several offline stores in Beijing and found that this Spring Festival liquor as a whole from the quality, quantity have declined.Compared with last Year’s Spring Festival, this year’s terminal store sales declined by up to 50%.Many liquor dealers told Sohu Finance that as the impact of the epidemic continues, most people choose to celebrate the Spring Festival locally, and there are fewer dinners and parties to some extent, leading to another “low peak season” during this year’s Spring Festival.In addition to the poor moving pin, terminal stores are basically to digest inventory, most dealers in the early Spring Festival did not stock up.Wang Lin, a “second batch” of baijiu merchants, told Sohu Finance, “The manufacturers put pressure on the dealers, who then distributed the goods to the second batch, but the second batch of merchants didn’t sell out.”Gao Fei, another liquor terminal shop owner, even said that the Spring Festival sales goods or the Mid-Autumn Festival during the stock, before the Spring Festival did not re-stock.In terms of consumer reflection, Sohu Finance and Economics learned from many consumers in the north and south that the demand for high-end liquor is still high in the peak season of the Spring Festival this year. Most of the wine demand is mainly for gifts of visiting relatives and friends, and the bottle opening rate is not high.Gao Fei explained to Sohu Finance, “Baijiu is still in high demand during the Spring Festival, but the quality and quantity of baijiu are lower this year than in previous years.For example, in the past, they may give away about 2,000 yuan of wine, but this year they may buy more than 1,000 yuan of wine.Or in previous years it might be one bottle, this year it might be two.This has resulted in a lot of dealers selling two to three million in the past, and this year it’s going to be a million.”The sales situation of supermarket channels and terminal stores is different.According to the feedback from the staff of Wumart, during the Spring Festival, it is mostly for families to drink by themselves, visiting relatives and friends, etc., and the hundred-year Niulanshan dynamic marketing of about 300 yuan is better. High-end liquor is mainly given as gifts to leaders, which is not common among consumers who buy it this year.A Carrefour wine promoters said that the supermarket niulanshan sales during the Spring Festival is not good, blue and white fen, alcoholic wine in this year’s Spring Festival to buy more.Sohu Finance and Economics in wumart, Carrefour and other supermarkets saw that the central promotion area is mainly based on niulanshan product line, the rest are not common regional liquor brands.From the price segment, high-end liquor is still the main Spring Festival moving sales, followed by high-end liquor.In this regard, Liu Liqing, a senior baijiu practitioner and expert of China’s liquor industry think tank, told Sohu Finance that during the Spring Festival this year, famous spirits including Moutai declined year-on-year.Overall, high-end is better than sub-high-end, sub-high-end is better than middle and high-end, the most serious decline is still regional brands.Liu liqing explained that consumers’ purchasing power has decreased, and in the current economic environment, government and business consumption demand has also contracted, and the end demand for liquor is weak.In addition, sauce wine heat is basically cold, channel heat decreased, consumers open the bottle rate is not high.A number of listed liquor enterprises in the fourth quarter net profit growth decline in addition to the terminal market sales recession, liquor listed enterprises’ annual report has been disclosed, Dong Baozhen is based on this, “liquor down cycle has been launched”.Dong pointed out that although baijiu’s full-year revenue grew through 2021, the fourth quarter was a recession.The high growth in 2021 is a bubble induced by excessive price increases, while the negative growth in the fourth quarter is realistic evidence that channel inventory has been filled.(image from Dong Baozhen article) however, sohu finance noticed that Dong Baozhen is calculated values in 2021 profit forecast, order to produce, wine companies already listed eight disclosure notice, except alcoholic wine, for this reason in the fourth quarter as the rose, gold seed loss before, including guizhou maotai, five major wine companies in the fourth quarter net profit fell.According to sohu financial inventory, so far, 19 liquor listed enterprises, has disclosed the 2021 performance forecast of 10 enterprises.Among them, niulanshan parent company shun Xin agriculture has not disclosed the profit of liquor business, temporarily not included.According to the forecast of the annual report and the third quarterly report, among the remaining nine liquor enterprises, the net profit of Kweichow Moutai in the fourth quarter of 2021 increased by about 14.48% year-on-year to about 14.734 billion yuan. Although it achieved positive growth, the growth rate narrowed from 19.70% in the same period of last year.The net profit of Swellfun in the fourth quarter was about 199 million yuan, down about 13.48% year on year.Net profit rose 22.68% to 230 million yuan a year earlier.Huangtai liquor, Golden Seed and Tianyoude liquor are still in decline or loss.In addition, Shanxi Fenjiu, Jinshiyuan, Shide Wine industry and Jiujiu all showed upper and lower limits of growth, and there is a great variable whether they can achieve positive growth.If according to its forecast value, the above four wine enterprises in the fourth quarter net profit can achieve double-digit positive growth, if according to its forecast value calculation, its net profit will appear different ranges of decline.It is worth noting that the current annual report has been disclosed warning liquor companies did not interpret the data in the fourth quarter.Brokers sing high liquor season was questioned by Dong Baozhen, industry wait-and-see attitude for the terminal dynamic pin situation, a number of mainstream brokers gave “in line with expectations, benign and robust” evaluation.Citic Securities on February 7 published a research report pointed out that the Spring Festival peak season baijiu liquor enterprises return basically maintained at 30%-40%.Famous wine to maintain consistent stability, hui wine, su wine is relatively eye-catching.The Spring Festival peak season liquor sales performance remained stable, market sentiment is expected to gradually warm.China Fortune Securities, liquor market feedback normal Spring Festival, better than before the pessimistic expectations, a good start to the first quarter.According to China Fortune Securities research, high-end wine is still steady growth, maowu lu batch price is relatively stable, no obvious decline;Sub-high-end performance after the festival is remarkable, give up the wine industry return and mobile sales better than expected, Shanxi Fen wine return and mobile sales better than expected, alcoholic wine outside the province smooth development and internal reference wholesale price stability;Among the real estate wines, Su wine and Hui wine were least affected by the epidemic. In addition, the relaxation of control during the Spring Festival brought a significant increase in personnel flow, and the progress of payment collection and moving sales were better than the same period last year.Brokerage optimistic assessment of the market, by the financial and economic big V “No Jitai Dong Baozhen” questioned.Dong Baozhen issued a document that liquor has entered a major cycle of decline inflection point.The high growth in 2021 is the bubble induced by excessive price increase. The negative growth in the fourth quarter is the realistic evidence that the channel inventory has been filled up. On the one hand, the price has exceeded the consumption capacity, and the channel inventory can no longer undertake.The mainstream capital market thinks that the negative growth in the fourth quarter has nothing to do with the big cycle of baijiu, and predicts that the growth in 2022 will still be rapid and such growth will never end.At the same time, Dong Baozhen questioned that the researcher did not make a field investigation of the terminal moving pin data, and believed that “the terminal sales status is not mentioned”, but only based on “normal inventory of dealers and normal payment”, the conclusion is questionable.Essence Securities mentioned in the relevant research report that during the Spring Festival for 7 provinces and cities (Shanghai, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Tianjin, Chongqing, Shaoxing, Zhejiang, Shandong Weifang) business supermarket channel grassroots research.Essence Securities said the liquor consumption scene has gradually recovered, the impact of the epidemic has weakened, and the set target of payment collection is expected to be successfully achieved.The overall dynamic pin benign and robust better than pessimistic expectations, far stronger than a sharp decline in expectations, regional wine boom marginal upward, stability and performance elasticity are hotspot.How does the market move the situation, Dong Baozhen mentioned that differences will be fully confirmed or falsified in the first quarter of the data.”The first quarter of every year is the most important peak season for the liquor industry, with more than one-third of China’s liquor sales coming during the Spring Festival.”Dong Baozhen proposed to leave the truth to the first quarter of the financial data.Liquor dealers disagree with Dong’s prediction.A number of liquor dealers, the second batch of business to Sohu Finance said that the first quarter of this year’s payment situation is really not good, and the dynamic sales of liquor is expected to pick up during the Qingming Festival, five first holiday period, the Mid-Autumn season still need to see further.Liu Liqing also said that the trend of this year’s liquor is not good words, but also need to further wait and see.